What to do with people? Be ambitious but realistic
Processors have become an integral part of our lives, because they are found in all the electronics around us - from washing machines And smart watch to smartphones, computers and even airplanes. And, of course, their development has a rather serious impact on our lives: after all, 10-15 years ago, no one could have dreamed that a small box called a smartphone would be capable of playing 4K video and working in helmets virtual reality, and laptops will not be coffins weighing under 5 kilograms with autonomy of a couple of hours, but thin devices weighing often less than a couple of kilos and autonomy closer to ten hours. So let's think (and dream) what will happen to desktop processors in five years.
Processor frequency - there will be no progress 
If we look at maximum frequencies overclocked processors without additional tricks like liquid nitrogen behind recent years 15, it is clearly seen that Pentium 4 were the first to “break through” the 3 GHz bar and stopped somewhere at 3.3-3.5 GHz. The subsequent Core Duo and Quad were already dual- and quad-core, and here the frequencies had to be reduced so that they did not overheat, and until 2008 they were again able to bring them to a level of 3-3.5 GHz. The Core i7, released in 2008-2009, was able to raise this bar to almost 4 GHz, and the second generation Core i7 in 2011 almost “took” the magic 5 GHz. And since then there has been no particular progress - when switching to a new technological process, the frequencies dropped somewhat, after its refinement they rose again, and now the 8th and 9th generations of Intel processors have maximum frequencies at the level of 5-5.2 GHz only because that Intel has been “squeezing all the juice” out of the 14 nm process technology for 4 (!) generations. However, the new generation of processors will be on the 10 nm process technology, and given that Intel is doing poorly with it, the frequencies will most likely have to be reduced again, and at best, in a generation we will again see 5 GHz overclocked. And then - a transition to 7 nm and again a decrease in frequency, etc.
Also, in one of the previous articles I answered the question, so we can assume that most likely the maximum frequencies will remain in the region of 5-5.5 GHz. As for AMD, they are adding about 200-300 MHz frequencies per year, in just 5 years they will reach the same level of 5-5.5 GHz.
Number of cores - there will be an increase, but not soon 
Let's look at history again. 2005 - the first dual-core desktop processors, Athlon X2 and Pentium D, are released. 2007 - the first quad-core, Core 2 Quad. 2010 - the first six-core, Phenom II X6. And only in 2017 - the first eight-core one, Ryzen 7. It turns out that 2 years have passed between 2 and 4-core CPUs, 3 years have passed between 4 and 6-core CPUs, and as many as 7 years have passed between 6 and 8-core CPUs, that is, clearly a slowdown in the growth of the number of cores is visible.
Why? Firstly, custom software is often not very well parallelized on big number cores, that is, performance per core is more important. Secondly, these are still not servers or Hi-End PCs, so the heat dissipation of the CPU should not exceed about 100-120 W, and taking into account the fact that it is becoming more and more difficult to reduce the technical process, in the same way it is becoming more and more difficult to “shove in” larger number cores into the same heat package without much reduction in frequency.
The latter is very clearly visible both in the example of AMD and Intel example: the first with the release of the Ryzen 2700X were forced to raise the thermal package from 95 (for the Ryzen 1800X) to 105 W in order to just increase the frequency by 300 MHz (less than 10%), and this is taking into account the transition to a thinner technical process of 12 nm (14 nm). Ryzen first generation). Intel actually went into outright cheating, saying that even the top 8-core Core i9-9900K will have a TDP of 95 W - yes, just like the 6-core Core i7-8700K on the same architecture and with a lower frequency . How so? Thanks to the solder under the cover - it is much more effective than the thermal paste that was used previously, so at the same frequency, the new 8-core CPU will heat up the same as the old 6-core one, but of course it will generate more heat - but who cares if temperatures haven't changed, right?
Therefore, as you can see, there is no point in expecting a serious increase in the number of cores even after 5 years. Of course, AMD can take its CCX modules, which now have 4 cores (and all Ryzen without discrete graphics have 2 such modules), and increase the number of cores in them, say, to 6 - however, as I wrote above, even a banal an increase in frequency by less than 10% has already entailed an increase in the heat package by more than 10%, but here it will have to be increased by one and a half times - after all, the “red” ones cannot reduce the frequencies, they are already lagging behind the “blue” ones in this regard. With the transition to 7 nm next year, AMD's goal is to get closer to Intel in single-threaded performance and still increase frequencies, so increasing the number of cores will not be possible. Most likely you will have to sit at 7 nm for a couple of years, because everything is bad with 5 nm. Therefore, in the best case, the transition to 5 nm will happen in 4-5 years, and only then, perhaps, it will be possible to increase the number of cores in CCX without a significant reduction in frequency.
As for Intel, they still stick to monolithic crystals, where all the cores are located in one crystal - this, on the one hand, seriously reduces the delays between them, which has a positive effect on performance, on the other hand, the price of such crystals turns out to be extremely high: so , the new 8-core Core i9 almost conquered the $500 bar, when the 8-core Ryzen 7 2700X can be found for $350. But 10-core Intel processors for high-performance devices (HEDT) already cost from $900, that is almost twice as expensive as 8-core ones - of course, there is no point in releasing a processor with such a price in the user segment; production needs to be optimized in order to reduce the price by half - and this is a slow process.
So in the end - yes, of course there will be an increase in the number of cores, and software support will be improved, but this will not happen very soon - most likely, in 5 years, and wait for such a breakthrough as AMD did with Ryzen, doubling the number of cores at once , it’s definitely not worth it - most likely their number will increase by 20-25%.
Cache - we are waiting for mass use of L4
Let's look at history again. The Intel 80486, released in 1989, had an L1 cache built directly into the processor and an L2 cache on motherboard. In the future, L2 was also placed in the processor, but the third cache level appeared only in 2008 in the Phenom II. They didn’t delay too much with L4 - it first appeared in 2014 in processors Intel Core 5th generation (Broadwell), but already in the 6th it was removed from desktop CPUs, leaving only in mobile solutions with integrated Iris graphics.
Why? It's simple - in fact, in 4-core monolithic solutions, several megabytes of third-level cache were enough for calculations - for example, L4 in Broadwell accelerated calculations only in isolated cases, and it was mainly needed for powerful integrated graphics, in order to smooth out the consequences of its use of slow RAM. However, now there are already 8-core solutions on the market, and half of them are no longer monolithic, and the RAM itself has begun to have higher latencies (16-18 processor cycles for DDR4 versus 9-11 for DDR3), so now L4 can become more serious increase processor performance.
Integrated graphics - a qualitative leap, increased productivity significantly 
Legends were made about the performance of integrated graphics from Intel 10 years ago, alas - not good: artifacts even in the most simple games, lack of Aero support, stutters even when playing 480p video. Since then the company has corrected itself - modern Intel HD Graphics is a good replacement for plug-in video cards that cost a couple of thousand rubles: it renders with a bang GUI systems, can even play 8K video and help while away the evenings in Dota 2.
AMD traditionally did not have such problems, because its integrated graphics differed from desktop graphics only in the number of computational units and frequency, and in fact the “red” set a simple bar for it - to be able to handle everything modern games, albeit with minimal settings graphics at minimum resolutions.
Of course, Intel tried to catch up with AMD - starting from the 4th generation Core processors i (Haswell) it produces processors with Iris graphics, which differs from HD Graphics in the number of computational units increased by 2 times. However, it quickly became clear that a simple “Ctrl+C - Ctrl+V” would not significantly increase performance: for example, according to tests, Iris was faster than HDG by at most 30-40%, and not twice as fast. And this takes into account the fact that starting from the 5th generation of processors, solutions with Iris had 64-128 MB of L4 cache.
Of course, Intel is not happy with this, and they decided to enter the desktop video card market by 2020 for the first time since the 90s - and, of course, this will also affect integrated solutions: so, according to leaks, mobile processors the new generation on the 10 nm process technology will have HDG (not Iris) with 64 computing units, when now there are 24, plus new architecture, so you can expect a performance increase of about 2 times - and this will already bring HDG to the level of Vega 3 - the youngest integrated graphics in Ryzen processors. As for Iris, most likely, it will also increase the number of cores significantly, which will make it a competitor to Vega 8 - that is, Intel should catch up with AMD in integrated graphics.
What in the end - what (possibly) will be the top desktop processors in 5 years? They will have 10-12 cores with a frequency of 5-5.5 GHz, L4 cache and powerful integrated graphics capable of handling modern games at that time. And how true this is - the future will show.
Reconsider your long-term goals, which in most cases turn out to be wrong. Understand how important "macro" is compared to "micro". Don't get caught up in the details and stop wasting time making predictions. Better get to work and don't forget to dream big. The important thing is that you believe in yourself and your strengths. You know that you will achieve your goal. Exactly what these achievements are is an unnecessary detail.
All self-development articles and books tell us that we must have goals. Goals are important, and personally I set them 12 months in advance. However, it is wrong to think that you can really plan your own life five years in advance. The question I hate most is the one that gets asked in every job interview: “Where do you see yourself in five years?” I think to myself, “Lounging on the beach with a book on the New York Times bestseller list? Damn it, I don't know!
How to Achieve Your Goals: Stop Wasting Time on Predictions
Not knowing is the best option
Too much confidence makes life boring. Not knowing where you will be in five years is awesome!
If you had asked me this question in 2011, when my life was falling apart, I probably wouldn’t have said that I would become the person I am today. Back then, I hated writing and had no idea what self-development was. I thought that my life would always be miserable and miserable.
But I'm proud of myself. And everything that I have was given to me this moment, for a reason. I worked hard and developed the right mindset, and you can too. There are things in my life that I value most.
Uncertainty can be yours best friend, if you let her do it. Stop trying to find out everything in advance.
You'll still be wrong
Yes, that's sad to hear. Blow a tear, wipe it with a disposable paper napkin, take this fact and get to work. Life is full of suffering, and life will kick you in the butt more than once. This will catch you off guard and your “five year plan” will fall apart.
At this moment you will understand what you truly value and what your life is about. Then you will rise and fall again when it happens next event.Life consists of these patterns.
Arguments for short-term goals
So why am I not advocating for big, elusive goals that need to be achieved in five years? I just believe in the power of short-term goals.
You need to take the right direction, otherwise you will be lazy and watch TV series thinking that everything is under control.
My two goals that I want to achieve in the near future are to change careers and perform more in public. These two goals are intertwined with the meaning of my life. They motivate me every day, forcing me to get out of bed in the morning and work.
As for where I see myself in five years, I don't know. I have direction, but I welcome surprises.
Your future is similar to mine. You'll need some big targets to get there, but trying to predict it is pointless. Thinking that you know everything is a disease.
This kind of thinking will get you into trouble.
Part of humility is knowing that you don't have all the answers. The important thing is that you believe in yourself and your strengths. You know that you will achieve your goal. Exactly what these achievements are is an unnecessary detail.
Not getting what you want is part of the game
One thing five-year plans don't take into account is that not getting what you want is a big deal.
If I had gotten the successful long-term business I wanted five years ago, I would never have hit rock bottom and discovered personal development and blogging. I would run a business I hate, to impress friends I don't like, to buy things that don't make me happy.
When you fail and don't get what you want, you should be happy. This means there will be another way. It's a sign.
Five-year plans and the belief that you know everything make you forget about this very important detail.
What should you focus on then?
Two big short-term goals and the meaning of your life. Short and clear. Just the way I like it. Once you understand why you exist on this planet, everything else will fall into place and there will be no need for a five-year plan.
For example, my life purpose to inspire the world through entrepreneurship and personal development can be achieved in the following ways:
speeches;
writing books;
blogging;
launching a podcast;
event management;
working on a global brand.
There are so many ways to achieve my life goal, and who cares how I do it. For example, I like blogging.
The most difficult thing is to understand your purpose. Once you figure this out, it's only a matter of time. Stop worrying about how you will ultimately achieve your goal - it's not that important.
Final Thoughts
I hope I have inspired you to reconsider your long-term scenarios, which in most cases always turn out to be wrong. I hope you now see how important “macro” is compared to “micro”.
Don't get caught up in the details and stop wasting time making predictions. Better get to work and don't forget to dream big.published by .
Any questions left - ask them
P.S. And remember, just by changing your consciousness, we are changing the world together! © econet
In 5 years you:
A winner in life. IN in a good way
You risk completely changing your life if you start moving towards your goal right now. Perhaps you will move to a new place and begin to do what you have long dreamed of devoting yourself to. Skydiving in New Zealand - oh yes! Of course, success can be with you at your old place of residence and work. But still the dream stubbornly calls you forward.
Head of department, athlete and Komsomol member
You will become such a serious and responsible citizen and business person. You will live according to a schedule, go to training and walk the dog. Just in your quest to conquer the world, don’t turn into an office bore or a volunteer with a crazy sparkle in your eyes. And so everything can be done. Do you want to be in charge? As much as you like. Do you want your own business? Yes please.
YouTube Star
Who's at risk of becoming a mega-celebrity here? You, of course! Maybe you should think about starting a YouTube channel now? It seems that many people will be interested in watching your life. In five years, you will gain millions of subscribers and will tell you how you go to concerts and walk around Paris.
Yoga trainer, hand-made master or Everest conqueror
In five years, harmony and peace will reign in your life. Or not. Because when you calm down, you decide for yourself. One thing is clear - you will find yourself a favorite hobby that will give you a million new opportunities. Or you will develop hitherto unprecedented talents. By this time you will already have enough of the rest.
Hero of the family front
Looks like in five years you'll be babysitting kids. The family will become the main reference point in your life and determine important tasks. To love your soulmate, to raise your children to be cool, to create comfort at home so that you don’t want to leave.
HR managers do not ask such questions to check psychic abilities candidate. They don't expect an exact description of what he will be doing in 3-5-10 years. So what do interviewers really want to hear? This is one question whose answer may say much more about you than you realize. It answers a whole series of questions:
- Do you have a solid career plan?
- Do you know what you want to do?
- Do you have a good understanding of the specifics of the position you are applying for?
- How do you define career success?
They want to learn more about the applicant's career goals and understand how the position they are applying for fits into their plans. It is important for an employer to choose an employee who is motivated and proactive and who is truly ready to invest and devote 100% to the common cause.
Avoid using clichés when answering questions:
- I just want to do what I enjoy.
- I'm not entirely sure.
- I don't think that far ahead. It all depends on…
Here are some tips on how to prepare an answer to the question: Where do you see yourself in three to five to ten years?
1. Be ambitious but realistic.
Employers will always be attracted to ambitious candidates - after all, no one wants to see someone who is indifferent to their job. However, you need to be realistic about how quickly you can climb the corporate ladder. For example, if you say that you would like to manage a team of twenty people for three years, but the company you are trying to get a job at has been doing so for ten years, then you run the risk of being perceived as overconfident.
To avoid voicing unrealistic desires, do your research. Before your interview, review the company website and employees' LinkedIn profiles to get an idea of how long it takes them to advance through the ranks.
2. Talk about accomplishments and responsibilities.
Another common mistake candidates make is talking about money and benefits provided by the company. For example,
I want to earn from 300,000 rubles, have a company car and extended voluntary health insurance.
For the vast majority of industries, the motivation to make a lot of money or receive benefits from the company is not considered acceptable. This will make the employer think that you are more interested not in your career, but in the benefits that the company offers.
Instead, your answer should focus on professional development. Talk about skills you'd like to learn, qualifications you'd like to obtain, or responsibilities you'd like to perform.
3. Be specific but flexible.
Giving a vague answer to this question is another mistake. For example,
I'm not entirely sure 5 years is such a long period. I could continue to work in marketing, but I am also interested in the financial field.
Employers want to make sure you know exactly what you want. After all, hiring, training and developing people is too expensive. The company is going to invest time and money to train a new employee, so you should be a good investment for them.
Of course, you shouldn't hide your real plans, but you may want to be less forthcoming if you're considering multiple career options. Talk about your interest specifically in the industry in which the company you are interviewing for operates. For example,
My goal at the moment is to find a position in a company where I can develop and take on challenges. In 5 years, I would like to take on more project management responsibilities and also be involved in developing strategies for new products.
Specific statements will be well received, but being firm and unyielding in your intentions will not. So carefully word your answers to this question. Instead of saying:
I need to get promoted within a maximum of three years, and I really hope that for the next five years I will only work with large clients.
It's better to answer like this:
I would like to take on more responsibilities in the next 3-5 years, ideally I would work with large clients of the company.
The first answer implies that if the company fails to meet your ambitions, you will be unhappy, and the second answer assumes a little compliance on your part.
4. Talk about professional, not personal ambitions.
If the interviewer does ask you to comment on your personal ambitions, then the most safe way- is not to mention them in general. Don't talk about how you want to visit Japan or hope to get married and plan to have two children. Don't expect interviewers to take this well. Employers want to hear about where you see yourself as an employee over the next five years, nothing else matters to them.
5. Emphasize the contribution you will make to the company.
Although the main purpose of this question is to determine your motivation, you should not miss the opportunity to emphasize in your answer how you can benefit the company. It would be useful to end your answer like this:
Overall, I want to make a significant contribution to your company, maintaining its reputation as a leader in area Y, and contributing to the company's overall growth and success.
Examples of answers to the question: Where do you see yourself in 3-5-10 years?
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Coach for job search and career building. The only trainer-interviewer in Russia who prepares for all types of interviews. Resume writing expert. Author of the books: “I'm Afraid of Interviews!”, “Destroying #Resume,” “Destroying #CoverLetter.”
